The following is the detailed content of the article "【International Oil Price Observation】International Oil Prices Declined on May 20th":

On May 20th, international crude oil futures prices dropped, mainly due to the uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran negotiations and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 

Regarding the US-Iran situation, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the US demand for Tehran to halt uranium enrichment is "excessive and outrageous", and he expressed doubts about the success of the new nuclear agreement negotiations. Alex Hodes, an analyst from StoneX, said that if sanctions are eased, the agreement reached between Iran and the US will allow Iran to increase its daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels. 

Regarding Ukraine and Russia, one day after US President Trump and Russian President Putin had a phone call, the EU and the UK announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the US to join. Ukraine hopes that the Group of Seven (G7) developed economies will lower the price cap on Russian海运 oil to $30 per barrel (currently $60). An agreement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine could allow Russia to export more oil to the world. 

The WTI crude oil futures for delivery in June 2025 dropped by $0.13 per barrel (-0.21%), with the settlement price at $62.56 per barrel. The Brent crude oil futures for delivery in July 2025 fell by $0.16 per barrel (-0.24%), with the settlement price at $65.38 per barrel. The price difference between Brent and WTI was $2.82 per barrel, narrowing by $0.03 per barrel compared to the previous day. 

The price of Shanghai crude oil futures has risen. The main contract SC2507 has increased by 3.2 yuan per barrel (+0.7%), with the settlement price at 464.6 yuan per barrel, equivalent to 64.59 US dollars per barrel. All contracts traded 152,029 lots, and the position decreased by 724 lots to 50,477 lots. The main contract traded 129,178 lots, and the position decreased by 525 lots to 30,310 lots. 

The price of the Murban crude oil futures rose by 0.24 dollars per barrel (+0.4%), with the settlement price at 65.04 dollars per barrel. All contracts were traded 32,918 times. 

The price differentials for gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and low-sulfur marine fuel in the Singapore market were $9.79 per barrel (-1.04), $15.34 per barrel (-0.73), $13.72 per barrel (-0.69), and $9.37 per barrel (-1.21), respectively. 

OPEC developments:

Barclays no longer expects the US to enter a recession in the second half of 2025 and has raised its economic growth forecast. It now predicts that the GDP of the Eurozone will remain unchanged in 2025, compared to the previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction. 

Analysts from the Research Department of Danske Bank stated in a report that the risk of recession triggered by recent tariffs is easing, and thus the bank has postponed its prediction for the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. Currently, Danske Bank expects the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, one quarter later than the previous prediction of June. However, they maintain their prediction of the final interest rate at 3.00%-3.25%. These analysts said that due to the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates quarterly, it now seems that the final rate will not be reached until September 2026. They stated that the relaxation of financial conditions, the reduction of tariffs, and the stronger-than-expected macro data in April have all reduced the necessity for a recent rate cut. But in the long term, the structural slowdown in growth and the continued sluggishness in credit growth continue to indicate that further rate cuts are needed in the future.

Here is the detailed content of "【International Oil Price Watch】International Oil Prices Continue to Fall on May 21st":

On May 21st, international crude oil futures prices dropped. This was mainly due to the increase in US crude oil and fuel oil inventories, coupled with the upcoming nuclear talks between the US and Iran. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that in the week ending May 16, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.328 million barrels, reaching 443.2 million barrels. Analysts in a Reuters survey had expected a decrease of 1.277 million barrels. U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 816,000 barrels to 225.5 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decrease of 524,000 barrels. U.S. distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 579,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels, compared with a market expectation of a decrease of 1.398 million barrels. Additionally, a new round of talks between the United States and Iran will be held in Rome on May 23. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said: "We are currently in a new round of negotiations, which has offset the previous premium." 

The WTI crude oil futures for delivery in July 2025 dropped by $0.99 per barrel (-1.58%), with the settlement price at $61.57 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures for delivery in July 2025 fell by $0.47 per barrel (-0.72%), with the settlement price at $64.91 per barrel. The price difference between Brent and WTI was $3.34 per barrel, expanding by $0.52 per barrel compared to the previous day. 

The price of Shanghai crude oil futures has risen. The main contract SC2507 has increased by 3.6 yuan per barrel (+0.8%), with the settlement price at 468.2 yuan per barrel, equivalent to 65.08 US dollars per barrel. All contracts traded 175,360 lots, with the position volume decreasing by 1,716 lots to 48,761 lots. The main contract traded 155,010 lots, with the position volume decreasing by 1,234 lots to 29,076 lots. 

The price of the Murban crude oil futures dropped by 0.38 dollars per barrel (-0.6%), closing at 64.66 dollars per barrel. All contracts were traded with 56,479 lots. 

The price differentials for gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene and low-sulfur marine fuel in the Singapore market were $10 per barrel (+0.21), $14.81 per barrel (-0.53), $13.17 per barrel (-0.55), and $8.97 per barrel (-0.4) respectively. 

Saudi Arabia's crude oil production rose by 10,000 barrels per day in March, reaching 8.957 million barrels per day. 

Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their outlook for global oil demand, currently expecting an increase of 600,000 barrels per day this year and 400,000 barrels per day next year. Goldman Sachs believes that the improved prospects of short-term rather than long-term tariff wars have enhanced the outlook for global economic growth, which may offset any negative supply impacts brought about by the US-Iran nuclear deal. "The oil market is reassessing risks in the Middle East and converting them into price premiums."