Latest updates on oil prices

Indicator Name Latest Data/Status Change

WTI November Crude Oil Futures $63.41 per barrel Up by 1.81%

Brent Crude Oil Futures $66.97 per barrel Up by approximately 1.5% - 1.6%

INE Chinese Crude Oil Futures 482.3 yuan per barrel Up by 1.47%

Main Content of the News

The main factors driving the increase in oil prices today come from the following aspects:

US sanctions against Russia intensify: US President Trump once again urged European countries at the UN General Assembly to immediately stop purchasing Russian oil, and stated that if Russia refuses to reach an agreement to end the conflict, the US is ready to implement "strong tariffs". This statement has exacerbated market concerns about the possible disruption of Russian oil supply. 

Iraq's exports face obstacles: Negotiations on the agreement to restore oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdish region have stalled. As a result, the region's daily crude oil exports of approximately 230,000 barrels have not resumed, temporarily easing market concerns over oversupply. 

US inventory decline: According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), last week the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels, a larger drop than expected, which provided support for oil prices.

Market Analysis and Outlook

The analysis indicates that the current crude oil market is in a state of "balancing between a bearish fundamental outlook and long-term geopolitical tensions". 

Short-term risks: Geopolitical events are the main potential upward risk for oil prices. Besides the US-Russia relationship, the attack on Russian energy facilities by Ukraine and Russia's possible restriction on diesel exports have all increased market uncertainty. 

Long-term pressure: From a fundamental perspective, the crude oil market is under pressure due to increased supply and seasonal decline in demand. OPEC+ plans to launch a new round of production increase in October, while US refineries enter the autumn maintenance period, resulting in a decrease in processing demand. This situation of increased supply and decreased demand may limit the future upward potential of oil prices.